Economic Forecast: CloudQuant Predicts Slight Dip In April Core CPI To Be 5.3% Or Down .3% From March

Gary Drenik: Morgan, thank you for joining us today. I am looking forward to hearing about some of the new and innovative new products CloudQuant has created for investors. We saw you had a rare near miss with last month’s Core CPI forecast. Can you provide some insight into what happened?

Morgan Slade: Good to be back, Gary. You’re correct, last month we predicted a .1% decrease in Core CPI as opposed to the actual .1% increase to 5.6% year-over-year growth. There are a couple of factors at play here; one of which is the cost of shelter, which we’ve spoken about extensively in previous months. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting to see the lowering costs of rent and shelter, in general, to start appearing in the government data. Additionally, one of the driving factors of the lower-than-expected Headline CPI print was the much lower cost of energy/fuel compared to a year ago, but energy is of course excluded from the Core CPI calculation. Still, we’re anticipating the cost of shelter to soon have a downward effect on both CPI metrics, and our models forecast April’s Core CPI print to come in at 5.3% when it’s released on May 10th.

Drenik: Can you tell us a little bit about CloudQuant and what inspired you to develop the Core CPI Forecast and Prosper Subindustry Consumer Survey signals?

Slade: Absolutely. CloudQuant provides data analysis, storage, and delivery solutions to data owners, and data users. Our platform allows individuals to incorporate our 100+ sources of data seamlessly into their existing processes or use our tech stack for AI/ML modeling, backtesting, and more. We also have a quant research team that builds out investment signals and forecasts, similar to the two offerings we will be discussing today.

The Core CPI Forecast and Prosper Subindustry Consumer Survey signals were developed in response to market demand. Our clients were asking for more sophisticated and accurate signals to help them make investment decisions, particularly in the current economic climate. The unique forward-looking survey data provides insights into the performance of subindustries and the current economic state of the country. Our Core CPI forecast is released 3 weeks ahead of the BLS results and allows investors to get a head start.

Drenik: That makes sense. Can you explain to our audience what the Core CPI Forecast is and how it can be used by investors?

Slade: The Core CPI Forecast is a monthly report that provides a prediction of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy for the next month with a directional accuracy of 90.5%. This forecast is based on our proprietary machine learning models, which analyze a wide range of consumer survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics to identify patterns and make predictions. Investors can use the Core CPI Forecast to anticipate changes in inflation, which can have a significant impact on the value of their investments. By incorporating this information into their trading strategies, investors can make more informed decisions and potentially generate higher returns.

Drenik: That sounds like a valuable tool. And what about the Prosper Subindustry Consumer Survey signals? How do they work, and what can investors gain from them?

Slade: The Prosper Subindustry Consumer Survey signals are based on data from a monthly survey of US consumers conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. This survey asks consumers about their spending habits, financial situation, and overall economic outlook. Our Quantitative Research Team has developed machine learning models that analyze this data to identify trends and make predictions about specific sub-industries within the consumer sector. Investors can use these signals to gain insights into consumer behavior and make more informed investment decisions in sub-industries such as apparel, electronics, and home goods.

Drenik: It’s clear that CloudQuant is providing innovative solutions to help investors make better decisions. What sets your products apart from other tools in the market?

Slade: One of the key advantages of our products is the use of machine learning and other advanced quantitative techniques. Our team includes experts in statistics, mathematics, and computer science, who are constantly working to improve our models and algorithms. In addition, our API and technology products are designed to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide range of investors, from prop traders to large financial institutions, and from quants to the non-tech savvy trader. We believe that democratizing access to quantitative research and data analysis tools is the key to driving innovation and generating better returns for all investors.

Drenik: That’s a compelling vision. What’s next for CloudQuant? Are there any new products or initiatives on the horizon?

Slade: Yes, we are constantly working on new products and initiatives to help investors stay ahead of the curve. One area that we’re particularly excited about is the use of tracking institutional fund flows of large, informed investors to analyze what moves they are making, weeks to months ahead of any SEC Filings hitting the books. We believe that these tools can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and help investors make better decisions in real time. We’re also constantly adding new data vendor partnerships and collaborations to expand our reach and bring our products to new markets around the world.

Drenik: Well, it sounds like CloudQuant has a bright future ahead. Thank you for sharing your insights with us today, Morgan.

Slade: Thank you, Gary. It was a pleasure to be here.